Misplaced Effort, Missed Opportunity: Lessons from an Enrollment Cycle Gone Off Course

Every spring, admissions teams push to the finish line with a familiar playbook: focus on FAFSA submissions, campus visits, and prior engagement as the strongest signals of yield. But what happens when those legacy metrics no longer match how students actually make decisions?

In Spring 2025, one private institution learned the answer the hard way. Facing a slower-than-expected yield curve, leadership partnered with enroll ml to conduct a real-time behavioral analysis just days before May 1. The findings revealed a sobering truth: counselors were working tirelessly, but their effort was pointed in the wrong direction. More than 150 staff hours were invested in students with virtually no chance of enrolling, while others with real potential went overlooked.

The issue wasn’t commitment, it was alignment. Legacy metrics had locked the team into outdated signals of intent, leaving them exhausted and unsure whether their outreach was working. What they needed wasn’t more activity, but clearer visibility into where student behavior actually indicated momentum.

Our latest white paper, Misplaced Effort, Missed Opportunity, unpacks this case study. You’ll see how behavioral intelligence exposed blind spots in traditional yield strategy, validated the hard work of counselors, and offered leaders a new framework for aligning time and energy with actual student movement.

Read the full white paper here.