What Melt Looks Like Before It Happens

When Good Students Drift: What Melt Looks Like Before It Happens

Summer melt doesn’t start in July.

By the time a student calls to say they’ve changed their mind—or simply stops responding—the melt has already happened.

What we call “melt” is really just the final step in something that started weeks, even months earlier: drift.

Drift is when a student who once seemed committed begins to slow down. The logins stop. The responses lag. The momentum fades. But because they’ve deposited, we assume they’re safe.

They’re not.

This is one of the most deceptive moments in the enrollment cycle. Because a deposited student looks secure in your funnel. Their checklist may be complete. Their file may be marked “done.” But their behavior says something else.

The challenge is that drift doesn’t announce itself. It doesn’t come with a notification. It looks like silence. It feels like delay. And unless you know what to look for, it passes unnoticed—until it’s too late.

That’s why the post-deposit window is just as critical as yield season. The work doesn’t end at May 1. It shifts—from conversion to retention, from nudging to noticing.

Are students still opening your communications?Are they scheduling orientation or housing?Are they making moves—or going quiet?

Melt is rarely about one bad day. It’s about a slow, steady loss of connection. And once that connection breaks, it’s hard to recover.

But when you can see drift early—when you can spot the students whose behavior is changing in subtle but significant ways—you can act. And that action doesn’t just protect your class. It protects your counselors’ time, your institutional revenue, and the months of work already invested.

The next six weeks are not about holding on tight. They’re about watching closely.

Because the question isn’t who melted. It’s who’s melting now—and what you’re going to do about it.

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