Why My Worst Run Was the Best Reminder: Admissions Metrics Are Just Weather Reports

This morning, I had a 10-mile training run scheduled. Not a casual jog, this was the kind of run I plan for. I went to bed early, woke up at 5:30, and was ready to go by 6.

But then I looked outside, which caused me to check the weather reports.

The radar showed rain coming. Not just light rain, but a thick band stretching across the area. The forecast called for storms not long after that. According to every piece of information I had, it wasn’t a matter of if, just when. So I waited. I figured I had no real choice but to delay my run by several hours.

But that’s not how the morning played out.

Every time I checked the radar, the rain had shifted a bit further south. Again and again. I kept expecting it to hit, but it never did. At 9:30, the pavement was still dry, the air was warmer, and the sun was out in full. I finally went for the run, and it was awful. The heat slowed me down. My legs felt heavier than they would have earlier. The route I had picked was fully exposed, and I paid the price.

And as I trudged through those ten miles, I started thinking about how often this same mistake plays out in college admissions.

Because it wasn’t just a bad run. It was a reminder of how easy it is to make the wrong decision when you're waiting for certainty that never comes.

The Mistake I Made

The weather report didn’t lie. It just gave me what it could: a picture of what was likely, based on what had already happened. That radar didn’t see the future. It offered a forecast based on the best tools available. And it had limitations.

What fooled me wasn’t the technology. It was my own search for clarity. I wanted the radar to give me something it couldn’t certainty about the future.

And that’s the same trap admissions offices fall into, especially in the later stages of the recruitment cycle.

The Forecast Trap in Admissions

We look at application numbers, FAFSA completions, event attendance, and try to build a picture of what’s coming. We build reports, segment lists, and wait for key dates to arrive so we can “know” where things stand.

But these markers only tell us what already happened. They are summaries of past choices, not signals of current momentum. When we rely on them to guide future actions, including who to call, when to call, who needs help, who’s slipping, we’re no different than me staring at that weather map, refreshing every 15 minutes and hoping for clarity that never arrives.

Sometimes the student who looked solid a week ago is already gone.

Sometimes the one who looks like a quiet maybe is actually ready, waiting for a nudge.

And sometimes we wait too long to act, just like I did this morning.

What Traditional Funnel Metrics Can't Tell You Let’s take a closer look at some of these “comfort metrics” we all use:

FAFSA complete: Helpful, but it doesn’t mean the student is emotionally ready or confident about their choice.

Campus visit: Important, but it might have happened weeks or even months ago. A visit doesn’t mean the student still feels connected.

Deposit made: The biggest trap of all. A deposit is not a final decision. It’s a placeholder. Students still melt after depositing. And often, the clues were there all along, we just didn’t look at the right ones.

None of these tell us how the student is moving right now.

They’re checkboxes. They help us feel in control. But they don't explain drift. They don't warn us when interest starts to slip. They don't tell us when to act.

What Actually Works

What we need instead is what I didn’t have this morning: a live view of how conditions are changing in real time.

At enroll ml, this is what we’ve built. Not a replacement for people, but a guide. A system that reads through hundreds of behavioral markers to see patterns that can’t be spotted by eye. Not just whether a student opened an email, but how fast they replied. Not just whether they scheduled a call, but whether they followed through, and how long it had been since they last engaged.

We look for movement. Change. Urgency. Drift.

This means we don’t wait on milestone data to tell us the class is forming. We know, every day, who is rising, who is fading, and where a counselor’s time will make the biggest difference. The system isn’t offering forecasts. It’s flagging opportunities.

Think of it like this: while most admissions teams are still watching the radar and waiting, we’re helping them step outside, feel the air, and start the run when the path is still clear.

Stop Waiting

The hardest truth is this: most of us are still running our admissions playbooks based on the past. That’s not because we’re bad at what we do. It’s because for years, those signals were good enough. They told us something. But the volume of applications, the rise of melt, the uncertainty in student behavior, all of that has changed the game.

A student can look solid and still be shopping. Another can look quiet and still be open. We can’t know that from checklists. And it is no longer true that the comfort metrics are the best we can do. Because we can know it from behavior. If we’re watching closely. If we’re listening to what students are actually doing, not just what they’ve done.

Don’t wait for the storm that never comes. Don’t miss the window that’s open right now.