What They Say vs What They Do: The Financial Aid Disconnect

Every spring, institutions invest enormous energy in perfecting their financial aid strategy. And understandably so—survey data consistently ranks “financial aid” and “scholarship amount” as top factors in student decision-making.

But here’s the paradox: when we look at the actual enrollment outcomes, financial aid amounts don’t rise to the top in predictive power.

At enroll ml, our machine learning models analyze real-time behavioral signals across the funnel. After three years of deployment and tens of millions of student records processed, we’ve found that financial aid amount is rarely a top predictor of enrollment.

Why the disconnect?

Because what students say—and what they do—often diverge. Behavioral science calls this the gap between stated preference and revealed preference. In enrollment, it plays out like this:

• Students say aid was the reason they didn’t enroll.
• But the data shows their engagement dropped long before the award.
• Or that they received a generous award—but never responded at all.

Financial aid is a stimulus, not a decision driver. The key isn’t the size of the award—it’s what the student does after receiving it. Did they log in? Schedule a meeting? Submit documents? Go dark?

That’s where the real insight lives. enroll ml decodes not just whether a student received aid, but how they responded. And those reactions—fast engagement, lingering silence, last-minute activity—are far more predictive than the dollar amount.

As you guide your team through yield season, don’t rely solely on what students say. Pay attention to what they do. That’s where the enrollment decision actually happens.
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If you're interested in further conversation on this topic, I invite you to watch a recording of an enroll ml webinar from August, 2024, How Predictive Is Financial Aid, with Matt Osborne from Ardeo Education. https://www.crowdcast.io/c/aid

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The future of college admissions isn’t just about generating more applications or refining marketing strategies. It’s about how we engage with students once they’re in the funnel. Institutions that focus on personalized, proactive outreach—targeting the right students with meaningful engagement—will outperform their peers in yield, retention, and student satisfaction.

Those who don’t? They’ll risk becoming marketing machines, focused more on response rates than building real relationships with students.

The Risk of a Marketing-Driven Future:
If proactive outreach isn’t widely adopted, admissions will continue to drift toward a purely marketing-driven profession. Response rates, open rates, and click-throughs will dominate the conversation, but real student engagement will fall by the wayside.

Colleges will see more applications, but fewer enrollments. Counselors will spend more time crafting mass emails and less time guiding students through critical decisions. This shift will erode both enrollment outcomes and counselor morale.

Technology Is the Key to Making the Shift:
Some institutions hesitate to adopt proactive outreach because they believe it’s too hard to scale. But the reality is, technology makes this shift not only possible but essential.

Machine learning and advanced data analytics allow institutions to identify students who are most engaged—those who are genuinely considering enrollment but need counseling to make a decision. This level of insight isn’t something you can achieve with pivot tables, no matter how much you love Excel.

Unless you’re prepared to build an in-house team of data scientists (which most institutions aren’t), the key is to partner with platforms that can provide these insights at scale. Tools like enroll ml can decode complex engagement patterns, helping counselors focus on the students who matter most.

Why Some Institutions Will Resist (and Why They’ll Fall Behind):
Many institutions will resist this shift, clinging to the belief that batch emails to groups of 40 to 400 students are “proactive enough.” The assumption is that personalized outreach isn’t scalable, especially for larger public institutions.

But here’s the truth: proactive outreach doesn’t have to apply to every student. The key is focusing on those who are clearly interested and engaged. Institutions that adopt this mindset—whether large or small—will outperform their market position because they’re connecting with the right students at the right time.

The Mindset Shift Admissions Needs:
The biggest barrier to adopting proactive outreach isn’t technology—it’s mindset. For too long, admissions teams have relied on the same formula: subject line, information dump, call to action. This approach may generate responses, but it doesn’t build relationships.

The institutions that thrive in the coming years will be those that identify who to engage with and approach those students with thoughtful, personalized communication. It’s not about volume—it’s about precision.

Proactive outreach isn’t just a trend—it’s the new standard for admissions success. Colleges that embrace personalized, data-driven engagement will see higher yields, stronger counselor morale, and better student outcomes. Those that don’t? They’ll be stuck chasing response rates in an increasingly crowded market.

The future of admissions belongs to those who engage with purpose. Are you ready?

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In college admissions, success is often measured by yield rates and enrollment numbers. But behind those numbers are two critical groups often overlooked: the counselors doing the work and the students making life-changing decisions. When admissions teams shift from broad, transactional outreach to proactive, personalized engagement, the results are profound. Not only do enrollment numbers improve, but counselor morale and student satisfaction soar.

Proactive Outreach = Increased Engagement with the Right Students
Proactive outreach isn’t about sending more emails or making more calls—it’s about engaging the right students at the right time. When counselors move beyond generic calls-to-action and focus on understanding a student’s unique needs, they create meaningful connections. This targeted approach leads to higher engagement from students who are actively considering their options, which naturally translates into better enrollment outcomes.

Imagine spending less time chasing down students who’ve disengaged and more time nurturing those on the verge of committing. That’s the power of proactive outreach—focusing efforts where they’ll have the greatest impact.

The Morale Boost Counselors Deserve
Admissions counselors don’t get into this field to run email campaigns. They’re here because they want to make a difference in students’ lives. But when outreach becomes a numbers game—sending mass emails, waiting for responses, and repeating the cycle—it’s easy to feel disconnected from the actual impact of their work.

Proactive outreach changes that. When counselors invest time in one-on-one conversations and personalized engagement, they see the direct impact of their efforts. They’re not just moving students through a funnel—they’re helping them navigate one of the biggest decisions of their lives. This sense of purpose is invaluable and leads to higher job satisfaction and reduced burnout.

Reducing Burnout in Admissions Teams
The admissions landscape has changed dramatically in recent years. Counselors face larger applicant pools, increased pressure to meet enrollment targets, and more administrative tasks than ever before. This environment is ripe for burnout.

But here’s the thing—burnout isn’t just about workload; it’s about the nature of the work. Repetitive, low-impact tasks like mass emails and generic follow-ups drain counselors' energy because they lack meaning. Proactive outreach, on the other hand, allows counselors to do the work they’re passionate about: connecting with students, offering guidance, and making a tangible difference.

A Better Experience for Students
Proactive outreach doesn’t just benefit counselors—it transforms the student experience as well. When students receive personalized attention from counselors who understand their unique needs, they feel seen, supported, and valued. This level of engagement helps students make more informed decisions and increases their confidence in choosing the right institution.

Students aren’t just looking for information—they’re looking for guidance. Proactive, personalized outreach provides that guidance in a way that mass communication never can.

The Misconception of Inefficiency
One of the biggest misconceptions about proactive outreach is that it’s inefficient. On the surface, spending an hour on a one-on-one call with a student might seem like a poor use of time compared to sending 500 emails. But in reality, there’s no better use of that hour.

A single, meaningful conversation with a student actively exploring their options can have a bigger impact on enrollment than dozens of generic emails. Proactive outreach isn’t about working harder—it’s about working smarter.

The Ripple Effect:
When admissions teams embrace proactive outreach, the benefits are far-reaching:

• Higher Yield: Engaging the right students at the right time leads to more commitments and reduced melt.
• Better Counselor Morale: Counselors feel fulfilled and energized when they see the direct impact of their work.
• Enhanced Student Experience: Students feel supported, valued, and confident in their enrollment decisions.

Proactive outreach isn’t just a strategy—it’s a mindset shift. It’s about focusing on meaningful, personalized engagement that benefits everyone involved. When counselors move from transactional to transformational outreach, they not only improve enrollment outcomes but also find renewed purpose in their work. And when counselors thrive, so do students—and so do institutions.

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Admissions teams are drowning in data. From FAFSA submissions and campus visits to email opens and application statuses, there’s no shortage of signals to track. But here’s the problem—not all signals mean what we think they do. And when teams rely too heavily on traditional indicators, they end up making decisions based on assumptions rather than facts.

It’s time to move from guesswork to precision—and that starts with understanding the difference between surface-level signals and deeper behavioral patterns.

The Problem with Over-Indexed Signals:
Many admissions processes are built around major milestones: FAFSA submissions, campus visits, and application completions. These are easy to track and feel like strong indicators of student interest. But are they?

Take FAFSA submission for example. For those of us who’ve been in admissions for a decade or more, we know that where a student lists your institution on the FAFSA matters. If you were listed first, that likely meant high interest. If you were listed fifth, your chances of yielding that student dropped significantly. But now that we can’t see FAFSA rankings, many teams treat all submissions the same—ignoring the nuances behind the data.

The Role of Gut Instinct (and Its Pitfalls):
Without clear, nuanced data, many counselors fall back on gut instinct. And while intuition plays a role, it’s inherently biased. A counselor might assume that a student who hasn’t applied for financial aid isn’t serious about enrolling—because they wouldn’t have enrolled without aid. But that assumption doesn’t hold true for every student. Relying on personal bias leads to missed opportunities and inconsistent outcomes.

The Hidden Signals We’re Missing:
What admissions teams often overlook are the subtle, behavioral signals that truly indicate student intent. It’s not just whether a student opened an email—it’s how quickly they opened it after receiving it, how many links they clicked, and whether they engaged again after a follow-up. The time windows between student actions matter far more than a simple yes/no.

For example:

• A student who visits your website multiple times within a week but hasn’t yet applied might be more interested than a student who submitted an application months ago but hasn’t engaged since.
• A student who opens your emails consistently but doesn’t respond may still be deeply engaged—they just need the right kind of outreach.

These patterns aren’t easy to spot manually. Machine learning tools like enroll ml analyze these time windows and engagement rates, surfacing students who are truly ready for proactive outreach.

From Data-Aware to Data-Driven:
Most admissions teams believe they’re data-driven. In reality, they’re data-aware. They track numbers, run reports, and create lists—but the depth of analysis needed to uncover true enrollment signals isn’t something you can get from pivot tables in Excel.

To make the leap from guesswork to precision, admissions teams need to pull the highest level of data analysis possible. This isn’t about working harder—it’s about working smarter, using tools that can decode complex behavioral patterns and guide counselors to the right students at the right time.

The Bottom Line:
Moving from guesswork to precision isn’t just about improving enrollment outcomes—it’s about freeing counselors from the endless cycle of assumptions and giving them the tools to engage meaningfully with the students who need it most. It’s time to stop guessing and start understanding.

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Admissions counselors are great at checking boxes—FAFSA submitted, campus visit completed, application in. But checking boxes isn’t proactive outreach. It’s reactive. True proactive outreach is about identifying the students who are in the decision-making process but need support navigating it. These are your swing students.

Who Are Swing Students?
A real swing student isn’t just someone who applied or visited campus. It’s a student who is genuinely considering your institution—and several others. They’re not fully committed, but they’re engaged. They’re in a subjective mindset, weighing options, and trying to sort through the noise.

These students aren’t always easy to spot. You might assume that someone who submitted a FAFSA is highly interested—but what if they sent it to ten schools and ranked you tenth? Not all engagement signals carry the same weight, but many admissions teams treat them as if they do.

Why Counselors Struggle to Prioritize Swing Students:
The biggest challenge in identifying swing students is the assumption that all signals mean the same thing. A campus visit for one student could mean deep interest, while for another, it’s just one stop on a tour of ten colleges. Without the right tools to decode these nuances, counselors end up glossing over key indicators.

And when they do reach out? Too often, it’s a generic call to action: “Submit your FAFSA,” “Schedule your visit,” or “Complete your application.” These messages don’t meet students where they are—they just add to the noise.

What Real Proactive Outreach Looks Like:
Proactive outreach to swing students is nuanced and personalized. It’s about researching the student’s engagement history, understanding their unique decision-making process, and tailoring outreach accordingly.

This might look like:

• A thoughtful email discussing their specific program interests.
• A Zoom call to address financial aid questions.
• A personalized campus visit tailored to their major.
• A text message to their parents highlighting scholarship opportunities.

The key? It’s student-specific, not driven by the counselor's personal preference. The medium and message are tailored to what that student needs to make their decision—not what’s easiest or most comfortable for the counselor.

Why This Matters:
When counselors focus on swing students with proactive, personalized engagement, two things happen:

1. Enrollment results improve because these are the students on the fence—your outreach can make the difference.
2. Counselors feel more fulfilled because they’re doing what they were trained to do: guide students through one of the most important decisions of their lives.

Most counselors believe they should prioritize students who respond to emails. But what if we flipped that? What if we focused on the students who need help deciding—before they even know how to ask?

The Bottom Line:
It’s time to redefine proactive outreach in admissions. By focusing on swing students and meeting them with personalized, thoughtful engagement, counselors can drive better outcomes for students and institutions alike.

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Admissions counselors are overwhelmed—but it’s not just because of the increasing number of applications or the complexity of the enrollment process. It’s how they’re spending their time.

A recent time study I conducted showed that counselors are spending one-third of their work time on data tasks—sorting CRM lists, running reports, and building outreach plans. All of this effort is aimed at one goal: crafting better lists for outreach. But here’s the question: Is all this work actually helping counselors connect with students in meaningful ways?

The Fairness Trap:
Many counselors believe that broad, list-based outreach is the fairest way to engage students. By treating every applicant the same, they avoid unintentionally prioritizing one group over another. But here’s the catch—treating students equally doesn’t mean treating them as individuals.

Mass emails, generic follow-ups, and checklist-based outreach feel like the right thing to do, but they often miss the mark when it comes to truly understanding student needs. Counselors are spending hours building lists, but the personal connections—the real heart of admissions work—often get left behind.

The Blind Spot:
The biggest blind spot in admissions outreach is the belief that counselors have to do this manual work to find the right students. What many don’t realize is that there’s a better way to identify which students need proactive outreach—before they disengage.

That’s where tools like enroll ml come in. By decoding behavioral signals from student interactions (like response timing, portal logins, and engagement depth), machine learning can surface the students who are most in need of outreach. This doesn’t mean counselors stop doing broad outreach—it means they spend more time where it matters.

What’s at Stake:
When counselors spend hours sorting data and crafting mass emails, they miss opportunities to build genuine relationships with students. And ironically, this approach doesn’t even achieve the fairness it aims for. Some students slip through the cracks because their engagement signals aren’t obvious in a spreadsheet.

By incorporating more proactive outreach—reaching out to students based on engagement patterns rather than just checklist items—counselors can learn more about their students and be in a better position to guide them through the enrollment process. This leads to stronger relationships, better support for students, and ultimately, higher enrollment results.

The Bottom Line:
Admissions counselors don’t need to cut out pre-active outreach entirely. But it should be just one part of a more balanced strategy. By shifting some of the time spent on data tasks toward genuine, proactive engagement, counselors can rediscover the relational side of admissions—and make a bigger impact on both their students and their institutions.

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Admissions teams are busy—really busy. But being busy doesn’t always mean being effective. What many admissions counselors call “proactive” outreach is actually what I call pre-active outreach. It looks like proactive work on the surface, but it’s fundamentally reactive at its core.

If your outreach strategy involves sending batch emails to dozens or even hundreds of students and waiting for responses—or following up only after students submit their FAFSA or attend an event—you’re not being proactive. You’re preparing to react.

What Is Pre-Active Outreach?
Pre-active outreach is when counselors send messages or make calls with the expectation that the student will take the next step before any real relationship is built. It’s mass communication disguised as engagement. For example:

• Sending an email to 300 students asking for their FAFSA.
• Following up with students after they visit campus, but not engaging beforehand.
• Waiting for students to respond to a call-to-action before personalizing outreach.

This isn’t proactive—it’s a sophisticated form of waiting.

How Did We Get Here?
Admissions has evolved into a numbers game. With increased application volumes and fewer resources, counselors are pressured to manage large funnels and meet outreach quotas. To cope, they’ve borrowed tactics from marketing: mass emails, segmented lists, and simple calls to action.

But here’s the problem—counselors aren’t marketers. Their role is to build relationships, not run miniature search campaigns. This shift from personalized counseling to high-volume communication has blurred the lines between marketing and meaningful engagement.

The Problem with Pre-Active Outreach:

1. It’s Not Personal: Mass emails and generic follow-ups don’t foster real connections. Students can tell when they’re just another name in the CRM.
2. It’s Inefficient: Counselors spend countless hours sending broad messages, hoping students will engage. This leads to burnout and missed opportunities.
3. It’s Reactive by Nature: Pre-active outreach waits for students to make the first move. By the time counselors engage meaningfully, it may be too late—the student has disengaged or chosen another institution.

What True Proactive Outreach Looks Like:
Proactive outreach flips this model on its head. Instead of waiting for students to respond, counselors anticipate needs based on behavioral signals and engage before the student even realizes they need support.

• Proactive Outreach Example:
  A student consistently opens your emails, clicks links, but hasn’t visited campus or submitted a FAFSA. Instead of waiting, you reach out personally to understand their hesitations and guide them through the next steps.

This kind of outreach leads to deeper connections, better support for students, and, ultimately, higher enrollment results.

The Bottom Line:
Admissions teams need to stop confusing pre-active outreach with proactive engagement. Mass communication has its place in marketing, but counseling is about relationships. By shifting from pre-active tactics to truly proactive outreach, counselors can better support students—and feel more fulfilled in their work.

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Admissions teams love to call their outreach strategies "proactive." But let’s be honest—most of what we label as proactive is really just a rebranded version of reactive communication. Sending batch emails, following up on FAFSA submissions, or nudging students for a campus visit isn’t proactive. It’s what I call “pre-active” outreach: a process of preparing to react to student behaviors rather than driving meaningful engagement.

Where We Went Wrong:
Over time, the pressure to increase applications and manage larger funnels pushed counselors into roles they were never meant to fill. Instead of focusing on relationship-building and personalized counseling, they’ve become mini-marketers—running their own search campaigns with mass emails, simple calls to action, and list segmentation.

This isn’t entirely their fault. The industry evolved this way. Counselors learned from marketing teams that success comes from volume—sending as many messages as possible and waiting for a response. But here’s the problem: this approach works in search campaigns and comm flows, not in counseling.

Pre-Active vs. Proactive Outreach:
Let’s clarify the difference:

• Pre-Active Outreach:
  Sending emails to 500 students asking for FAFSA forms, hoping a few respond. This isn’t proactive—it’s mass communication disguised as personalization. It’s waiting for students to show interest before engaging.
• Proactive Outreach:
  Identifying swing students—those who are highly engaged but not yet committed, or those who’ve committed but are starting to disengage—and reaching out before they drift. It’s about understanding student behaviors, not just tracking checklist items.

Why This Matters:
By shifting from pre-active to proactive outreach, counselors can return to the heart of their profession: counseling. They’ll have the bandwidth to genuinely connect with students, understand their needs, and support them through the enrollment process. This not only boosts enrollment outcomes for institutions but also improves job satisfaction for counselors who feel more aligned with their purpose.

The Bottom Line:
It’s time to stop calling mass communication proactive. Let’s redefine what it means to engage students meaningfully—and ensure counselors aren’t just sending emails but building relationships that drive enrollment.

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